Why Obama will win the presidency

Talk about your premature speculation -- still, I'm becoming convinced that Barack Obama will be our next president. What about his inexperience? As long as he doesn't have any Gerald Ford moments on the campaign trail, I think Obama will answer those doubts. He is the only candidate opposed to the Iraq War from the beginning, and, assuming things continue going south in Mesopotamia, that should work to his advantage. Obama cuts a commanding presence; style over substance, perhaps, but when has that been a detriment? And it's not like his opponents (on the Democratic side) are that experienced. The ones that are (like Biden and Richardson) don't stand much of a chance. The Hillary factor. Fifty percent of Americans don't like Hillary. I suspect that number will grow the more they're exposed to her programmed campaign. Being Bill Clinton's wife is not enough. I think you'll see Obama trounce her in New Hampshire, a la McCain over Bush in 2000. But whereas McCain lacked the resources -- and any establishment support -- to maintain his momentum, Obama should have no such troubles. He's running neck-and-neck in fundraising and has picked up some key endorsements, including some former Clinton backers. He's new. Hillary certainly can't say that. Nor can Edwards. Obama represents a sea change -- in philosophy, appeal and approach -- from Bush and the dreaded "politics as usual." Young people will flock to his campaign in numbers that will make his opponents drool. Even Bushies have been seduced:

John Canning has impeccable Republican credentials: He was a Pioneer, one of President George W. Bush's top fundraisers. He's the head of a leveraged- buyout firm. He's the deputy board chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Now he has given the maximum campaign contribution, $4,600, to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

And he's not the only one. He's black. That's no longer a drawback. The people who would not support an African-American candidate aren't going to vote for a Democrat regardless. And they'll be vastly outnumbered by an increased black turnout that'll go overwhelmingly to Obama. Moderate whites will be intrigued by his inclusiveness; he's more Colin Powell than Al Sharpton. The Sally Field factor. Outside of the rube caucus, Americans want to be liked. They're bothered by the low opinion the rest of the world has of us right now, justified or not. How best to change that? Electing Obama, a black man of Kenyan heritage who opposes the war in Iraq and seeks to build global consensus. In many minds, he would be absolution for Bush. But isn't he too liberal? He'd certainly be the most liberal White House occupant ever, but I don't think he'll run that way. And I doubt he'd govern that way. Look for him to follow (Bill) Clinton's lead, running as a centrist and governing center-left. His voting record may speak differently, but ideology isn't going to matter as much this go around. The Republicans are divided. No matter who's their nominee, don't expect him to be embraced partywide. Christian conservatives aren't going to be mobilized like they were for Bush (43) and Reagan. Giuliani would likely be the only one who could beat Obama, but he'd be hurt by a smaller turnout of the base. Fred Thompson? Craggy old white guy vs. attractive young black guy -- who do you think wins? Bet on Will Smith, er, Obama. Have I convinced you? I've convinced myself. This isn't an endorsement, but a reality check. Barring unforseen circumstances (and there's never any of those), Barack Obama will be America's 44th president.

Comments

[dpb]

All good points. I would prefer to see Giuliani take the Presidency myself but I think the far right-wingers are going to keep him from winning the Republican primaries. If that's the case, any Democrat candidate could beat whoever the Repubs put up. I would much rather see Obama over Hillary and I think he could do it (for many of the reasons you present here).

[Christina]

Hello everyone! I have not yet decided which candidate I will vote for; however, I have read a couple interesting comments that I want to address:
1. Mr. Obama is too "green": To that I say - let's look at the credentials of our current POTUS ("elected" to serve 2 terms): he had no international experience, dodged the opportunity to serve in the armed forces/reserve, and questionably operated several businesses in the state of Texas.
2. Mr. Obama is black: So what? Let's remember- HIS MOTHER IS WHITE. After his father returned to Kenya he was raised by his mom and step-father. He has been exposed to so many ethnic influences and I think this makes him better able to relate to so many different kinds of people.

I think it is necessary to have an intelligent, consensus-building, optimist as our next president. Let's vote for this person…whomever this may be.

[John]

Wow, this is a really good article. I think that these points are very well stated and even though I don't know if I like Obama enough to vote for him, I'm pretty sure that I don't like any of the other candidates. Great analysis sir, well done.

[John Driedger]

You say, "They're bothered by the low opinion the rest of the world has of us right now, justified or not." Oh yeah, right! If makes you feel better to qualify that, then go ahead if you want. But as someone from Canada I can tell you you are looked down at as complete idiots who pick a leader like you pick soap. I could see he was garbage, what was wrong with your perception?

[atlmalcontent]

Thanks for reading, John, but next time you may want to sound less like a cliche -- or do smug generalizations pass for original thought in Canada?

If so, could you please ship us a barrel or two of enlightenment, seeing how you have plenty to spare. Frankly, Canada owes us, considering how you've exposed us to the likes of Celine Dion, Jim Carrey, Avril Lavigne, Howie Mandel and Bryan Adams.

Be sure to
are broad generalizations leveled by the allegedly enlightened non

[atlmalcontent]

ignore that last paragraph -- sloppy editing. The first two stand

[Forrest]

Canada is irrelevent - it's Europe, Asia and Africa that the author was referring to in his article (which is very good, by the way). Who cares what twelve moose and a fat guy with a Molson's cap thinks?!?! You say, "I could see he [presumably Barack] was garbage..." but offer no insights as to why. I think you're a bigot, plain and simple. Obama Barack is VERY popular in much of the world (Europe and Africa in particular), and electing him would go a LONG way in repairing the damage our current Idiot-in-Chief has done worldwide. If and when Obama is elected, look for a turnaround in the US economy, just due to a change in attitude by foreign investors towards America. And you know what? Canada will benefit, too. So shut up, suck down another Molson's (crap beer, by the way), and pray that America wakes up and puts Obama Barack in the White House.

[Ethel]

I just cant stomach a man with his name becoming a president of the United states. I mean, why couldn't he have a name like Leroy, or JJ or something American?

I hope He doesn't win. He really acts like he thinks he is something else. He's not.

[Forrest]

Are you serious? Why don't YOU have a better name? I mean, c'mon: ETHEL? That's a name that conjures up some frumpy, fat, ugly, pimply bitch! I guess I'm glad we won't ever have an ETHEL as president!

[Nolyne]

I cannot believe that some people can still judge by the origin of a name or color of skin! It is so not 21st century America. I think that people like that are just afraid of how well a black president might be compared to a lot of white ones. I am not pro Obama, but hey, we have to recognize that the guy is good. He actually is doing a lot better than I thought we would.

[snowbird]

Read Obama's book and you'll suddenly have your blind eyes open to what we're all in for if he wins..you'll be looking for a cave to live in or a mountain to run to,but it'll be to late then.And please don't say you weren't told!By the way,I loved Ethel on I love Lucy..apparently she had more "common sense" then a lot of people in this modern "dumbed down" world these days!!

[kiki]

Obama FTW. And his book was great, poster above me is a tard'.

[Loully]

It is complete BS to judge a president by their name. Okay, George Bush had an "American name" and he happened to screw up our country. And FYI what do you consider American? Does it have to be Smith? I thought America was a place where everyone would be accepted. I thought America was the collection and accumulation of various cultures. If Obama's name is gonna keep you from voting then you have problems. And your simply racist.
Obama has the most successful campaign. A country that is leading towards an economical crisis needs a president can handle money.

Excellent article.

[lolo]

Obama is what US needs to improve its reputation and bring us back together to lead the world. There is no other candidate as charismatic a leader as Obama . He has the looks, style, eloquence, a compassionate soul and very specific plans as how to turn the country 180 degree towards progress and prosperity. Hillary Clinton on the other hand is having problem running a successful campaign let alone the country. She runs on scandle, lies deciving, self pity and plays the woman card whenever she falls behind. Is this what this country deserves? As an immigrant, I know that America is about lofty thoughts, dreams, excellence and hard work. All those qualities Obama embodies. The Clintons have tasted the good times in the White House. When they left, they were in debt due to legal fees they incurred due to his extramarital affairs and that he had to pay back. So how did they amass 50 million dollars in 7 years? I can hardly make enough money to make a comfortable life. How do they do it? The Clinton Hunted House of scandle should be stopped before it is too late. People want Obama. You are telling me that millions and millions of people do not know what they are doing? What a disrespect to American people. Comandor in Chief will be changed to despair in chief. She is in trouble....

[J.Yankson, UK.]

Obama is what the world needs.Talking about experience,what experience has Mrs.Clinton gotten? Being at the White House only exposes you to guest and dignitaries.If this experience is what Mrs.Clinton is talking about,then i can assure her that,Mrs Kibaki,Mrs.Mogabi and Laura Bush also shares similar experience.The condition of America is so critical,and so we need a man and that man is Obama.
Hillary should try 2016.

[J.Yankson, UK.]

Obama is what the world needs.Talking about experience,what experience has Mrs.Clinton gotten? Being at the White House only exposes you to guest and dignitaries.If this experience is what Mrs.Clinton is talking about,then i can assure her that,Mrs Kibaki,Mrs.Mogabi and Laura Bush also shares similar experience.The condition of America is so critical,and so we need a man and that man is Obama.
Hillary should try 2016.

[Fecal Princess]

I lived in a horse trader's ass for sixteen years before I found god. I love you.

[barackator]

Will Obama win? Go and see my Obama site - you'll like it. There are brand new Obama songs there (more to come), and a Forum: http://willobamawin.com/ - I need members! You need to talk...

[shannon]

It's hard to believe that people still say the most ignorant things. The person who said "why couldn't obama's name be leroy or jj"--are you fkng kidding me? You as an American have the right to be a racist bastard--that's on you, but do you not go home, pray to a God who put Obama on this earth just like he did your stupid ass? I hear people all the time talk about how Obama has purple lips or big ears--these are completely unintelligent people that are being effected by the horrendous govt that we live under today--not one country in this world respects us and hillbillies like this man do not care. They live in trailors and have low paying jobs, and wonder who is responsible for that other than themselves, who never furthered their education. GO BUSH,HUH? You should wake up and realize that it isn't the color of someones skin that determines how smart or affective you will be as president, it is someone who really understands what rational thinking is. These rednecks do not care if they're irrational, as long as they can keep the black race underneath them. I am a white woman who sees things for what they really are. Oh let me guess, I have "Jungle Fever"! Racists are going to live on like cockroaches, but one day they will have their day with their maker: the same being who made black people also. Tell GOD how bad of a job he did by putting black people on this earth to achieve what whites have achieved over hundreds of years. See what he has to say about that!Good luck Obama, thank you for giving my generation a glimmer of hope as to what our future could really be like. Please America, do not let an 80yr old man who talks about Obama being
"out of touch" run this country! This old man couldn't possibly relate to what this generation needs, because he follows the same policies that has ran this country completely in the ground. It's okay if your preference is not to date or marry a black person; whatever,but don't vote for someone that is no longer qualified to raise this torn country to the standards we should. WE NEED CHANGE AMERICA!!! If we have a black president, the world will not explode!!! GET WITH IT!!!

[Sarah F]

I am English and lately I've been following the elections, and am appauled by the smearing, racism and rudeness from the Republicans and supporters. I have come across a few wonderful anti-Obama people who actually speak rationally and explain why they don't like him. But, I find the majority believe every petty detail and use it against him! I saw one video where people were asked whether Obama was a terrorist. Some reponses included, "it rhymes with Osama so he has to be" and "it's in his bloodlines", at which point I turned it off because I were most offended (being part Irish). Even Schwartznegger commented on his figure saying he were too skinny! Is this the lowest these people can go to?

As for reputation in Europe, speaking for myself it's not so much the people I'm annoyed with because from my experience usually you are very nice and I don't base me facts on a few nutters who choose to ruin it for the rest of yer. However, the world is fed up of the Republicans due to the Iraq war and other such foreign policies and if Obama gets through it will be sigh of relief for everyone. After all, anyone who admits to wanting to use the a-bomb if war broke out is rather unstable to me. McCain will only further severe ties. And unfortunately, a lot of people think Americans are stupid because of the rednecks and Bible Belt.

If it makes any difference, McCain's friend Rupert Murdoch thinks Obama will win or should win because McCain isn't very good with the economy.

BTW Shannon, the last line you stated "If we have a black president, the world will not explode!!! GET WITH IT!!!" is marvelous. Now if we also replaced the black president bit with owt ranging from the LHC to 2012 then maybe people will be a bit more clued. :-P

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